When and where could the Chinese rocket fall in Italy and how dangerous is the module out of control.
Just in these hours the 30 meters wide module of a Chinese rocket is traveling at 27,600 km / h from space in the direction of our heads. The problem is that it is an uncontrolled re-entry. No one yet knows exactly where the wreckage of the space projectile will crash and that is why scientists are a bit ‘worried: even the Italian ones, because there is a probability that the rain of debris will fall right on national soil. To be precise, on the Center-South of the country.
For the moment almost everything falls in the order of possibilities, including the estimated date for the impact with the Earth, predicted on May 8 with an approximation of 24 hours. The reassuring part is the role of “shield” played by the atmosphere, usually able to dematerialize the objects coming from outside. Assuming that the high altitude gases alone are not enough to burn the fragments of the Chinese vehicle, we should consider ourselves unlucky to see them fall on an inhabited area.
How dangerous is the module out of control
As it is known, in fact, most of the globe is occupied by deserts, forests, prairies and oceans (the latter are 70% of the total). Compared to which human settlements represent, by extension, a small percentage. To put it in numbers (which did the expert Andrew Jones of the site spacenews.com), the probability of an individual being hit by space debris is extremely low, estimated at one in several trillion. According to Holger Krag, head of the European Space Agency’s Safety and Security Program Office, even 40 percent of the material could withstand an aerial impact.
Long March 5B had lifted off in Beijing on April 29, to bring into orbit the first module (“Tianhe” or “Harmony of Heaven”) of the future space station “Tiangong,” translatable into Italian as “Celestial Palace.” On technology, Beijing proceeds at two speeds. To the umpteenth tightening on the Internet corresponds the prolific industry of smartphones and a space program that can already boast several successes.
The uncontrolled re-entry of the rocket, however, does not represent a good advertisement for the exploration of new frontiers promoted in the East, but it is certainly not the only similar episode occurred in decades of expeditions outside our planet: in February 2003, for example, 90 thousand kilos of space debris fell without hurting anyone over Texas. They came from the shuttle Columbia.
Giuseppe Giordano